UFC Fight Night Blaydes vs. Aspinall: Will there be a heavyweight upset in London?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALAfter rewarding fans with one of the top fight cards of the year in the spring, UFC Fight Night returns to London on Saturday, headlined by heavyweights Curtis Blaydes and Tom Aspinall (3 p.m. ET on ESPN+).
During the last Fight Night in the UK, only three of the 12 bouts ended in decisions. Will we get more of that at the O2 Arena on Saturday?
Blaydes, ranked No. 4 in ESPN's divisional rankings, enters the bout riding back-to-back wins in the division. While, Aspinall, No. 6 in ESPN's rankings, is undefeated in his five Octagon appearances. Only one of his opponents, Andrei Arlovski, made it past Round 1.
Either fighter could stake their claim as the top contender for the heavyweight title with an impressive win.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA head coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the main event while betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn added their insights and analysis for everything from the main event to some intriguing bets they like lower down the card.
Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes vs. Tom Aspinall
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
Tale Of The Tape
| BLAYDES | ASPINALL | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31.4 | 29.3 |
| Height | 76.0 | 77.0 |
| Reach | 80.0 | 78.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Mar. 26, 2022 | Mar. 19, 2022 |
How Aspinall wins: Utilize his footwork, hand speed and linear strikes up the midline (anti-wrestling strikes). Footwork to keep his back off the black line or "red zone" inside the Octagon. In a fight with a wrestler of Blaydes caliber, Aspinall would be wise to stay away from the fence. Aspinall also needs to utilize hand speed, combined with his pull counters. Throwing two or three strikes with speed, then taking a half step to clear some space for the counter or shot. Lastly, feint a ton and throw linear strikes up the midline to discourage Blaydes to shoot his blast double leg takedown.
X-Factor: Who wins the wrestling scrambles and has the best cardio. I think Aspinall can compete with Blaydes in the wrestling and ground department. If Blaydes can hold Aspinall down, I think Blaydes has some of the best ground and pound in the division, and can easily TKO Aspinall from ground strikes.
Prediction: Aspinall by third round KO. Both fighters are extremely well coached and will come in with great game plans. Blaydes has only lost three times in his career and seems to be showing new wrinkles and improving each time out.
Aspinall, on the other hand, has the skills and potential to be a force in the heavyweight division for a long time. After seeing the way the London crowd powered Aspinall in his dismantling of Alexander Volkov, it's very tough for me to go against the hometown guy in this matchup.
Betting Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes Vs. Aspinall
| Stand-up striking offense | Blaydes | Aspinall |
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 2:3 | 2:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 2.4% | 4.0% |
| Head jab accuracy | 28% | 32% |
| Head power accuracy | 29% | 53% |
| Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 54% | 100% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 6 | 2 |
| Takedown defense | 33% | 100% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 99% | 100% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
The opposite is true of Blaydes. His standup metrics look mediocre, but he has fought the best the division has to offer over many years. He's faced elite strikers, yet his only losses are to two of the most powerful punchers in the division, Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis. That's because his wrestling is the best in the division. Wresting can still trump a knockout artist. That is, if the London crowd doesn't give the referee tens of thousands of reasons to keep the fight standing.
Strong wrestlers at plus money are generally a reasonable bet, and eventually Aspinall's insane stats will see some regression to the mean. It's certainly not a layup, given Aspinall's additional BJJ credentials, but Blaydes as an underdog is worth a small play.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Middleweight: Jack Hermansson vs Chris Curtis
Parker: Hermansson to win (-110). Undefeated in the UFC, Curtis will be looking to jump up in the rankings with a win over Hermansson. As we have seen before, Curtis carries the punching power to change a fight at any moment. However, Hermansson won't allow himself to get into a brawl, and will likely aim to get the fight to the ground where he will have a significant advantage. We did see Curtis stuff every takedown from Rodolpho Vieira in his last fight, but Hermansson is a much better wrestler and uses his striking to set up the takedowns. If Curtis doesn't land something big early, I think Hermansson can use his volume striking and grappling to get the win.Women's flyweight: Molly McCann vs. Hannah Goldy
Kuhn: McCann to win (-400). With a reliable clean sweep of performance metrics, McCann makes for a deserving favorite. She'll have a huge striking advantage over Goldy, who won't present much of a wrestling threat to stifle the attack.
McCann, who fights at a much faster pace, is more accurate and has much tighter striking defense. In a fight likely to spend plenty of time on the feet, McCann should rack up points. She makes a good parlay anchor.
Parker: McCann by decision (-165). Coming off a highlight reel KO of Luana Carolina, Mccann will be looking to continue her winning ways. McCann is a big favorite here and for good reason: Wherever this fight goes, she is better by a large margin. She just needs to stay off her back and not allow Goldy to simply grind out a decision. With only two career losses, both by decision, I think Goldy will hang around and make the fight competitive, but ultimately lose by decision.
Light heavyweight: Paul Craig vs. Volkan Oezdemir
Kuhn: Craig to win (+140). For a potential upset, consider Craig, the Scottish submission ace. Craig has faced dangerous strikers before, relying on his brutal ground game to pull off plenty of upsets. Oezdemir, historically a slick striker, has only knocked out one opponent in five years.
Despite decent takedown defense from Oezdemir, Craig should eventually find a way to get the fight to the ground. Once there, we'll see a significant mismatch favoring Craig as an underdog. He's worth a small stab for the upset, plus a sprinkle on the submission prop at +240.
Featherweight: Makwan Amirkhani vs. Jonathan Pearce
Parker: Pearce to win (-200). After three losses in a row, Amirkhani got the much-needed win in his last bout against Mike Grundy. Pearce, on the other hand, has looked phenomenal since his loss to Joe Lauzon in 2019.Pearce will have a major cardio advantage against Amirkhani, who has struggled with conditioning in the past. If Pearce can push the pace and avoid submissions, we should see another strong performance from him here.
